But Shiller puts inflation at 1.68, which is 0.56 higher than the long bond. Robert Huebscher is the founder and CEO of Advisor Perspectives. As of January 21, the regular CAPE yield was a paltry 2.85 (the inverse of the CAPE at 35.13). 'It has gotten very strong and is built on the assumption the other side is lying,” Shiller said. and elsewhere such as between conservatives and liberals, and Democrats and Republicans. The risks in the economy also include an atmosphere of mistrust and polarization in the U.S. “A lot of people are really worried about global warming,” he said, “and it is a bigger issue long term than COVID.” That possibility has been going on for a long time and combines with ESG. Global warming could get worse, he said, for example from events like wildfires that create more consternation. Tariffs used to be routine taxes levied on goods, but are now important enough to shape public opinion and drive stock prices. The net effect is to push prices up, but people will still hold those stocks. Shiller’s 2019 book, Narrative Economics: How Stories Go Viral and Drive Major Economic Events, was all about how stories can drive the market.As an example, Shiller points to the idea of tariff wars. He likes stocks with low CAPE ratios and high (“green”) ESG ratings to avoid the phenomenon of prices being bid up by the ESG phenomenon.ĮSG investing has done well, Shiller said, although investors may lose some return in the future. To learn more about how this information is collected, refer to the link below. Source The information in this package was compiled by Robert Shiller. “I think it will last a long time and will have a good effect on the market,” he said, “raising the cost of capital for anti-social companies. Data The following table goes into more detail about the individual data points provided for each month.

Robert shiller data